Critical Analysis of the Duration Estimation Method

Oct 13, 2025 by talynt.org 12 views

Introduction

The Phase III Development Project Regional General Hospital (RSUD) Dr. Djoelham in the city of Binjai began on June 30, 2011, with the aim of providing quality healthcare services to the community. However, the project faced significant challenges in completing the project within the scheduled timeframe of 182 calendar days. The application of deterministic duration methods in each activity proved to be inadequate in guaranteeing the project's timely completion. This article discusses the estimated risk -based duration approach used in the project, which integrated risk scale on each item of activities on a critical trajectory to ensure the project's completion on time.

Background

The Phase III Development Project RSUD Dr. Djoelham was initiated to address the growing healthcare needs of the community. The project's objective was to construct a modern hospital that would provide quality healthcare services to the people of Binjai. However, the project's implementation was marred by delays and cost overruns, which led to the project's completion being delayed beyond the scheduled timeframe.

Methodology

The estimated risk -based duration approach used in the project involved two methods: qualitative and quantitative. The qualitative method was used to determine the risk scale of each activity item, while the quantitative method was used to find the probability and optimal duration of project completion. The Evaluation and Review Technique (Pert) program was used to analyze the project's duration, which was integrated with the Monte Carlo simulation.

Analysis

The analysis of the project's duration was conducted in three scenarios: optimistic duration (most quickly completed), the most likely duration (most likely), and pessimistic duration (the longest completed). The results of the analysis showed that the project's probability of being completed on time was only 29.45%. The optimal duration of the project completion in the probability of 95% was 200 days.

Critical Analysis of the Duration Estimation Method

The selection of the exact duration estimation method is crucial in project management. Deterministic methods are often too rigid and do not consider random or unexpected factors, which can affect the project completion time. Conversely, risk -based methods provide better flexibility by considering the possibility of various scenarios that can occur during project implementation.

Importance of Understanding and Managing Risks

The importance of understanding and managing risks in the project cannot be ignored. Complex projects, such as the construction of hospitals, have many variables that interact with each other. Therefore, the use of techniques such as the Monte Carlo simulation in risk analysis is very important to provide a clearer picture of the variability of completion time.

Conclusion

The analysis and estimation of risk -based duration not only offers a way to achieve timely settlement but also improves the ability of project management in facing challenges and uncertainties that may arise during the development process. Phase III Development Project RSUD Dr. Djoelham provides valuable lessons about the importance of using the right method in the estimated duration, which can be adopted by similar projects in the future.

Recommendations

Based on the analysis and findings of this study, the following recommendations are made:

The use of risk -based methods in duration estimation should be adopted in similar projects to ensure timely completion.
The Monte Carlo simulation should be used in risk analysis to provide a clearer picture of the variability of completion time.
Project managers should consider the possibility of various scenarios that can occur during project implementation and plan accordingly.

Limitations of the Study

This study has several limitations, including:

The study was conducted on a single project, and the findings may not be generalizable to other projects.
The study only considered the duration estimation method and did not consider other factors that may affect project completion.

Future Research Directions

Future research should focus on:

Developing a more comprehensive risk -based duration estimation method that considers multiple factors that may affect project completion.
Conducting a larger-scale study to validate the findings of this study.
Investigating the use of other risk analysis techniques, such as sensitivity analysis and decision trees, in project management.

References

[1] Project Management Institute. (2017). A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK Guide).
[2] Kerzner, H. (2017). Project Management: A Systems Approach to Planning, Scheduling, and Controlling.
[3] Meredith, J. R., & Mantel, S. J. (2017). Project Management: A Managerial Approach.

Appendix

The following appendix provides additional information on the methodology and analysis used in this study:

Appendix A: Description of the Evaluation and Review Technique (Pert) program used in the analysis.
Appendix B: Description of the Monte Carlo simulation used in the analysis.
Appendix C: Results of the analysis, including the probability of project completion and the optimal duration of project completion.
Estimated Risk -Bale Based Duration in Phase III Development Project Dr. Djoelham City of Binjai: Q&A =============================================================================================

Q: What is the estimated risk -based duration approach?

A: The estimated risk -based duration approach is a method used in project management to estimate the duration of a project by considering the risks and uncertainties associated with each activity. This approach involves integrating risk scale on each item of activities on a critical trajectory to ensure the project's completion on time.

Q: What are the benefits of using the estimated risk -based duration approach?

A: The benefits of using the estimated risk -based duration approach include:

More accurate estimated duration
Better flexibility in planning and managing the project
Improved ability to manage stakeholder expectations
Increased possibility of time -time completion
Improved overall quality of project management

Q: What are the limitations of the deterministic duration method?

A: The deterministic duration method is often too rigid and does not consider random or unexpected factors, which can affect the project completion time. This method does not provide a clear picture of the variability of completion time, making it difficult for project managers to make informed decisions.

Q: What is the Monte Carlo simulation, and how is it used in risk analysis?

A: The Monte Carlo simulation is a statistical technique used in risk analysis to provide a clearer picture of the variability of completion time. This technique involves generating multiple scenarios of project completion time and analyzing the results to determine the probability of project completion.

Q: What are the key findings of this study?

A: The key findings of this study include:

The project's probability of being completed on time was only 29.45%.
The optimal duration of the project completion in the probability of 95% was 200 days.
The use of risk -based methods in duration estimation is more precise and relevant than the deterministic method.

Q: What are the recommendations of this study?

A: The recommendations of this study include:

The use of risk -based methods in duration estimation should be adopted in similar projects to ensure timely completion.
The Monte Carlo simulation should be used in risk analysis to provide a clearer picture of the variability of completion time.
Project managers should consider the possibility of various scenarios that can occur during project implementation and plan accordingly.

Q: What are the future research directions of this study?

A: The future research directions of this study include:

Developing a more comprehensive risk -based duration estimation method that considers multiple factors that may affect project completion.
Conducting a larger-scale study to validate the findings of this study.
Investigating the use of other risk analysis techniques, such as sensitivity analysis and decision trees, in project management.

Q: What are the implications of this study for project managers?

A: The implications of this study for project managers include:

The need to adopt risk -based methods in duration estimation to ensure timely completion.
The importance of considering the possibility of various scenarios that can occur during project implementation.
The need to use statistical techniques, such as the Monte Carlo simulation, in risk analysis to provide a clearer picture of the variability of completion time.

Q: What are the limitations of this study?

A: The limitations of this study include:

The study was conducted on a single project, and the findings may not be generalizable to other projects.
The study only considered the duration estimation method and did not consider other factors that may affect project completion.

Q: What are the future applications of this study?

A: The future applications of this study include:

The use of risk -based methods in duration estimation in other projects.
The use of the Monte Carlo simulation in risk analysis in other projects.
The development of more comprehensive risk -based duration estimation methods that consider multiple factors that may affect project completion.