Production and Price Trend Analysis

Oct 13, 2025 by talynt.org 91 views

Introduction

Red chili is a leading commodity in North Sumatra, which places the province as one of the top three red chili producers in Indonesia. The production and price of red chili are crucial factors that affect the livelihoods of farmers, distributors, and policy makers. This study aims to determine the most appropriate method in predicting the production and price of red chili in the area until 2028. To achieve this goal, this study uses three specifications of trend-based forecasting analysis methods, with the help of Ms. software. Excel, which was then evaluated using MSE (Mean Squared Error) and Mape (Mean Absolute Percentage Error).

Research Methodology

The research location selection method applied is purposive, and the data analyzed are secondary data obtained from the Central Statistics Agency of North Sumatra Province, the Food Crops and Horticulture Office of North Sumatra Province, and the Food Security Agency. The study uses three specifications of trend-based forecasting analysis methods, including linear, quadratic, and exponential trend methods. The results of the forecasting analysis are then evaluated using MSE and Mape to determine the most suitable method for predicting the production and price of red chili in North Sumatra.

Results

The results showed that the specifications of the Forecasting Analysis method that were most suitable for predicting the production and price of red chili in North Sumatra from 2019 to 2028 was the quadratic trend method. In this study, the MSE value for the forecast of red chili production was 327,350,725.6 and the MAPE value was 10.46, while for price forecasts, the MSE value reached 12,435,113.1 and Mape was 14.9. This finding shows that between 2019 and 2028, red chili production in North Sumatra experienced a negative trend, as well as the price of red chili.

Production and Price Trend Analysis

Analyzing production trends and the price of red chili is very important for farmers, distributors, and policy makers. Negative trends identified in the production and price of red chili in North Sumatra can be caused by various factors. First, climate change that has an impact on the productivity of chili plants can affect crop yields. In addition, market price fluctuations can also create pressure for farmers to maintain production.

With information about this trend, stakeholders can take strategic steps to increase productivity and price stability. For example, the government can provide support through training programs for farmers about more efficient modern agricultural engineering. In addition, strengthening of distribution infrastructure can also help reduce the gap between the purchase price of farmers and the selling price in the market.

Factors Affecting Production and Price Trends

Several factors can affect the production and price trends of red chili in North Sumatra. These factors include:

Climate Change: Climate change can impact the productivity of chili plants, affecting crop yields.
Market Price Fluctuations: Market price fluctuations can create pressure for farmers to maintain production.
Distribution Infrastructure: Strengthening of distribution infrastructure can help reduce the gap between the purchase price of farmers and the selling price in the market.

Implications for Stakeholders

The results of this study provide significant added value for stakeholders in the agricultural sector, especially those related to red chili. Farmers and suppliers can use this information to plan their products, management, and marketing. In a broader context, policy makers can use this data as a basis for formulating policies that focus on increasing food security and local economic development.

With a deep understanding of the pattern of production and price, stakeholders can be better prepared to face challenges that might emerge in the future, as well as increase the competitiveness of North Sumatra's red chili in the national and international markets.

Conclusion

This study aims to determine the most appropriate method in predicting the production and price of red chili in North Sumatra until 2028. The results showed that the quadratic trend method is the most suitable method for predicting the production and price of red chili in North Sumatra. The study also identified several factors that can affect the production and price trends of red chili in North Sumatra, including climate change, market price fluctuations, and distribution infrastructure.

Recommendations

Based on the findings of this study, the following recommendations are made:

Training Programs: The government can provide support through training programs for farmers about more efficient modern agricultural engineering.
Strengthening of Distribution Infrastructure: Strengthening of distribution infrastructure can help reduce the gap between the purchase price of farmers and the selling price in the market.
Formulation of Policies: Policy makers can use this data as a basis for formulating policies that focus on increasing food security and local economic development.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the purpose of this study?

A: The purpose of this study is to determine the most appropriate method in predicting the production and price of red chili in North Sumatra until 2028.

Q: What methods were used in this study?

A: This study uses three specifications of trend-based forecasting analysis methods, including linear, quadratic, and exponential trend methods.

Q: What are the results of this study?

A: The results showed that the quadratic trend method is the most suitable method for predicting the production and price of red chili in North Sumatra. The MSE value for the forecast of red chili production was 327,350,725.6 and the MAPE value was 10.46, while for price forecasts, the MSE value reached 12,435,113.1 and Mape was 14.9.

Q: What are the implications of this study for stakeholders?

A: The results of this study provide significant added value for stakeholders in the agricultural sector, especially those related to red chili. Farmers and suppliers can use this information to plan their products, management, and marketing. In a broader context, policy makers can use this data as a basis for formulating policies that focus on increasing food security and local economic development.

Q: What are the factors that can affect the production and price trends of red chili in North Sumatra?

A: Several factors can affect the production and price trends of red chili in North Sumatra, including climate change, market price fluctuations, and distribution infrastructure.

Q: What are the recommendations based on the findings of this study?

A: Based on the findings of this study, the following recommendations are made:

Training Programs: The government can provide support through training programs for farmers about more efficient modern agricultural engineering.
Strengthening of Distribution Infrastructure: Strengthening of distribution infrastructure can help reduce the gap between the purchase price of farmers and the selling price in the market.
Formulation of Policies: Policy makers can use this data as a basis for formulating policies that focus on increasing food security and local economic development.

Q: What are the benefits of this study for the agricultural sector?

Q: What are the limitations of this study?

A: This study has several limitations, including the use of secondary data and the assumption of a linear relationship between the variables.

Q: What are the future research directions based on the findings of this study?

A: Future research directions based on the findings of this study include:

Collection of Primary Data: Collection of primary data to validate the findings of this study.
Use of Advanced Methods: Use of advanced methods, such as machine learning and artificial intelligence, to improve the accuracy of the forecasting analysis.
Analysis of Other Factors: Analysis of other factors that can affect the production and price trends of red chili in North Sumatra.

By addressing these questions and limitations, this study provides a comprehensive understanding of the production and price trends of red chili in North Sumatra and offers recommendations for stakeholders in the agricultural sector.