Understanding the Economic Growth of Tebing Tinggi City through Forecasting GRDP

Oct 13, 2025 by talynt.org 26 views

Forecasting of the Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) of the Agricultural, Industrial, Electricity, Gas and Water Sector in Tebing Tinggi City in 2007-2012 with the Double-Moving Average Method

Understanding the Economic Growth of Tebing Tinggi City through Forecasting GRDP

Economic development in Tebing Tinggi City, such as in other regions, aims to improve the welfare of the community, create jobs, and level income. To achieve this goal, the local government seeks to improve economic relations between regions, one of which is through regional economic growth. The Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) is an important indicator for measuring regional economic growth, as it represents the total value of all goods and services produced in an area in a certain period. By analyzing the GRDP trend, we can understand the economic dynamics of an area and determine the right development strategy.

The Importance of PDRB Forecasting in Understanding Economic Development

To understand the economic development of Tebing Tinggi City and plan an effective development strategy, PDRB forecasting is needed. PDRB forecasting allows us to predict future economic growth based on historical data. This is crucial in making informed decisions about resource allocation, investment, and policy formulation. In this study, the double-moving average method was used to predict the GRDP of the agricultural, industrial, electricity, gas and water sectors in Tebing Tinggi City in the 2007-2012 period. This method was chosen because of its ability to capture trends and fluctuations in historical data, so as to produce more accurate forecasting compared to the simple average method.

Analysis of the Main Sector GRDP in Tebing Tinggi City

GRDP data obtained through forecasting can be analyzed to understand the contribution of each sector to the economic growth of Tebing Tinggi City. For example, if the agricultural sector shows a significant growth trend, the local government can focus on programs that support the development of the agricultural sector, such as the provision of infrastructure, training, and market access. In addition, forecasting GRDP can also help local governments in identifying sectors that have the potential to be developed. By knowing the growth trend of certain sectors, the government can allocate resources and investment more effectively to encourage economic growth and improve the welfare of the community.

The Role of Forecasting GRDP in Formulating Development Policies

Forecasting GRDP is an important tool in understanding and managing regional economic growth. By using the right methods, such as the double-moving average, and analyzing data carefully, local governments can maximize the economic potential of Tebing Tinggi City and create better conditions for the community. This information can be the basis in formulating the targeted development policies, encouraging sustainable economic growth, and improving the welfare of the people in Tebing Tinggi City.

The Benefits of Using the Double-Moving Average Method

The double-moving average method is a powerful tool in forecasting GRDP. This method is able to capture trends and fluctuations in historical data, producing more accurate forecasting compared to the simple average method. The double-moving average method is also able to identify patterns and cycles in data, allowing for more accurate predictions. In addition, this method is able to handle missing data and outliers, making it a reliable tool for forecasting GRDP.

Case Study: Forecasting GRDP in Tebing Tinggi City

In this study, the double-moving average method was used to predict the GRDP of the agricultural, industrial, electricity, gas and water sectors in Tebing Tinggi City in the 2007-2012 period. The results of the study showed that the agricultural sector had the highest growth trend, followed by the industrial sector. The electricity, gas and water sectors showed a moderate growth trend. The results of the study can be used as a basis for formulating development policies that support the growth of the agricultural and industrial sectors.

Conclusion: Maximizing the Economic Potential of Tebing Tinggi City

Recommendations for Future Research

Future research should focus on improving the accuracy of forecasting GRDP using advanced methods, such as machine learning and artificial intelligence. In addition, future research should also focus on analyzing the impact of economic growth on the welfare of the community, and identifying the factors that contribute to sustainable economic growth.

Limitations of the Study

This study has several limitations. Firstly, the study only analyzed the GRDP of the agricultural, industrial, electricity, gas and water sectors in Tebing Tinggi City. Future research should analyze the GRDP of other sectors, such as the service sector. Secondly, the study only used the double-moving average method, which may not be the most accurate method for forecasting GRDP. Future research should use other methods, such as machine learning and artificial intelligence, to improve the accuracy of forecasting GRDP.

Conclusion

In conclusion, forecasting GRDP is an important tool in understanding and managing regional economic growth. By using the right methods, such as the double-moving average, and analyzing data carefully, local governments can maximize the economic potential of Tebing Tinggi City and create better conditions for the community. This information can be the basis in formulating the targeted development policies, encouraging sustainable economic growth, and improving the welfare of the people in Tebing Tinggi City.
Q&A: Forecasting of the Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) of the Agricultural, Industrial, Electricity, Gas and Water Sector in Tebing Tinggi City in 2007-2012 with the Double-Moving Average Method

Q: What is the purpose of forecasting GRDP?

A: The purpose of forecasting GRDP is to predict future economic growth based on historical data. This allows local governments to make informed decisions about resource allocation, investment, and policy formulation.

Q: Why was the double-moving average method used in this study?

A: The double-moving average method was used in this study because it is able to capture trends and fluctuations in historical data, producing more accurate forecasting compared to the simple average method.

Q: What are the benefits of using the double-moving average method?

A: The double-moving average method is able to handle missing data and outliers, making it a reliable tool for forecasting GRDP. It is also able to identify patterns and cycles in data, allowing for more accurate predictions.

Q: What were the results of the study?

A: The results of the study showed that the agricultural sector had the highest growth trend, followed by the industrial sector. The electricity, gas and water sectors showed a moderate growth trend.

Q: What are the implications of the study for local governments?

A: The study suggests that local governments should focus on programs that support the development of the agricultural sector, such as the provision of infrastructure, training, and market access. They should also allocate resources and investment more effectively to encourage economic growth and improve the welfare of the community.

Q: What are the limitations of the study?

A: The study has several limitations. Firstly, the study only analyzed the GRDP of the agricultural, industrial, electricity, gas and water sectors in Tebing Tinggi City. Future research should analyze the GRDP of other sectors, such as the service sector. Secondly, the study only used the double-moving average method, which may not be the most accurate method for forecasting GRDP.

Q: What are the recommendations for future research?

A: Future research should focus on improving the accuracy of forecasting GRDP using advanced methods, such as machine learning and artificial intelligence. In addition, future research should also focus on analyzing the impact of economic growth on the welfare of the community, and identifying the factors that contribute to sustainable economic growth.

Q: What are the potential applications of the study?

A: The study has potential applications in various fields, such as:

Economic planning: The study can be used to inform economic planning and policy formulation at the local level.
Business decision-making: The study can be used by businesses to make informed decisions about investment and resource allocation.
Research and development: The study can be used as a basis for further research and development in the field of economic forecasting.

Q: What are the potential challenges of implementing the study's recommendations?

A: The study's recommendations may face several challenges, such as:

Limited resources: Local governments may face limited resources to implement the study's recommendations.
Resistance to change: Stakeholders may resist changes to existing policies and practices.
Complexity of the issue: The issue of economic growth and development may be complex and require a multidisciplinary approach.

Q: What are the potential benefits of implementing the study's recommendations?

A: The study's recommendations may have several benefits, such as:

Improved economic growth: The study's recommendations may lead to improved economic growth and development in Tebing Tinggi City.
Increased welfare: The study's recommendations may lead to increased welfare and improved living standards for the community.
Sustainable development: The study's recommendations may lead to sustainable development and reduced poverty.